Are Karegyeya, Kayumba bracing for war?

by Laverite SurleRwanda

Gen. Nyamwasa and Col. Karegeya

The former Three Criminal Allies

The Karegyeya- Kayumba partnershipThree years into his exile, Karegeya was joined by his former Chief of Staff Gen. Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa - a battle hardened General and also former chief spy during the RPA 'liberation' war between 1990 and 1994.Gen. Kayumba, who says he fell out with President Kagame over disagreements on how the latter personalized power, is so far the most prominent RPA officer to run into exile.And now, analysts including foreigners share Rutaremara's views about Karegeya and believe the Kayumba- Karegeya partnership presents a formidable politico- military challenge to President Kagame's regime.Speaking to The Newsline, a security expert at the South African based International Center for Strategic Studies, who declined to be named, said: "Karegeya has been silent for three years. No one knows what he was planning, and he has been joined by another senior officer- Nyamwasa. With the two senior officers together, you need to look at the timing of his threats. Something may be coming up," he said.To one Mudenge (a Rwandan exile based in Kenya ), the threat of war against President Kagame is likely given the large number of people whose lives he has touched. "The mass of people dissatisfied with him has grown considerably, all they need is a torch-bearer, and both Kayumba and Karegeya present that missing link," he said."The number of people who have fallen out with President Kagame- from his military comrades to high ranking politicians- grows day by day," he added.And, on top of the two dissident officers another name has surfaced. Major Theogene Rudasingwa.The Kigali establishment believes Kayumba and Karegeya are in contact with other exiled former RPF stalwarts, including Kagame's former Director of Cabinet, Theogene Rudasingwa and Joseph Sebarenzi.And, sources told The Newsline that in a High Command meeting two weeks ago, Kagame told his officers that Rudasingwa is collaborating with the two dissident officers to wage war against the Rwanda government.The US- UK factorAssessing the threats of war posed by the two dissident army officers, a western diplomat based in Kigali, who declined to be named, said he doesn't see the possibility of any armed struggle against Kagame, because any attack on Kigali is an attack against Washington and London ."In Africa, wars are won or lost depending on who the US and UK want to win or lose. In Rwanda 's case, there is no indicator yet that US and UK would support an anti- Kagame rebel incursion. He is one of their strong point men in the region," the diplomat said.Kagame moves in to foil any attemptWhen Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa beat Kagame's intelligence boys hands down, and sneaked out of the country, Kagame deployed his troops across the country in a manner that brought back memories of the 1997/8 rebel incursions in North western Rwanda .He also reshuffled his top military and intelligence command and, immediately increased salaries of his elite Presidential Protection Unit by US$400 each. He also jailed some high ranking officers he suspected of being loyal to Kayumba, including Major Gen. Karenzi Karake, who worked for a long time with Kayumba in RPA intelligence.Analysts believe all this was in anticipation of a possible attack, while our military sources say Kagame and his cohorts are on 'Standby Alert 1', and believe an attack is looming."When Kagame deployed at the Rwanda- Uganda stretch few months ago, he was fearful of a looming incursion. He had intelligence info of a probable attack," said one of our military sources, on condition of anonymity.The untold story: Behind Semadwinga's assassinationOur reliable military sources say President Kagame is so scared of an impending attack that even communication with the two dissident officers is equal to a death warrant."Kagame received intelligence information that Kayumba spoke to Ntare Semadwinga and, allegedly, asked him to recruit remnants of Laurent Nkunda's CNDP, in preparation of war against Kagame," said our source.According to sources, Ntare Semadwinga, who was the Director of Cabinet of 'incarcerated' Laurent Nkunda was assassinated two days after Kagame received the information.But before he was assassinated, according to the source, he had allegedly passed on the information about an impending attack to the Democratic Green Party Vice Chairman, Andre Kagwa Rwisereka.He, too, was assassinated two weeks later.The Government denies any involvement in the assassination of the two political figures, while calls to Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa for a comment over the several allegations went unanswered.